CHINA, US COME TOGETHER ON AFGHANISTAN; WHERE IS INDIA?

SEEMA MUSTAFA. 

September 27, 2015

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NEW DELHI: While Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was busy entertaining corporate heads in New York, and flying to Silicon Valley to visit the Facebook headquarters, a very important, substantive, and significant meeting was held on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly at New York that heralds a major change in the power politics of Afghanistan. 

The U.S.. China and Afghanistan co-convened a high level meeting on Afghanistan’s peaceful development and regional cooperation.Months of efforts by both Pakistan and the U.S. to ease out differences and bring China on board finally bore fruit, with the first-of-its-kind meet being held on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly. 

In the chair were the Chief Executive of Afghanistan Abdullah Abdullah, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, and Afghan Foreign Minister Salahuddin Rabbani. Those who participated in the talks were ministers from Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Iran,Australia, Italy, Norway.Kazakhstan. Pakistan was represented by National Security Advisor Sartaj Aziz. There was no sign of India, clearly not even invited as a participant. 

The meeting: 

1. expressed its strong support for the National Unity government in Afghanistan; 

2. welcomed steps taken to implement the reform agenda; 

3. reiterated support for an Afghan led and Afghan owned peace process; 

4. supported government efforts to further advance reconciliation with the Taliban and other armed groups; 

5. called upon these groups to enter into direct talks with the Afghan government; 

6. China, US and Afghanistan reiterated their conviction that Afghanistan will never be used as a safe-haven for international terrorists and called for regional and international cooperation on this. 

The next major events will be a donors conference in Brussels, and what was discussed and commended at the meeting, the Heart of Asia-Istanbul Process Ministerial Conference in Islamabad. All present hoped that this would renew a commitment for peace and non-interference in Afghanistan’s regional affairs. 

China has thus stepped in where India seems to have been afraid to tread. In that it has expanded its role from economic and financial assistance to a clearly strategic partnership, sitting on the same side of the table as the US on this issue. In the process that India, which seems to be happy with the “fondness” that the common Afghan reportedly has for Indians, is now completely out of the picture as even two major competitors join hands to tackle the challenges posed by Afghanistan, and the fast deteriorating situation there. 

India’s strategic---if it can be called that---is limited to exchanging dossiers on terrorism with Pakistan, and threatening war through media channels every other day. The absence of dialogue, or as a senior retired diplomat said, even basic strategic thinking has pushed India out on the periphery with even that position----as the meeting above indicated--now under serious threat. 

PM Modi’s visit to the US this time wove itself around investment, with the occasion providing a great photo opportunity. However, except for promises little of substance was placed on the table, well placed sources said, to convince American business that the bottlenecks will be removed at break neck speed, which is what most of them reportedly insisted on. 

The strategic agenda, if it existed, was barely visible during this visit by PM Modi even as Chinas premier Xi Jianpung on his first state visit to the US moved out of the ‘grand events” frame for an itinerary that was broad based, substantive and strategic. The focus points of his discussions with US President Barack Obama and top officials were cybersecurity where gaps were narrowed, climate change that remains with both still on the same page although with differences, South China Sea where there has been little breakthrough as yet, all under the enveloping blanket of Xi’s avowed aim to develop a “great power relationship with the US. 

The cooperation on Afghanistan with China now sharing the grand high table with the US is clearly a major move forward in this direction. China’s interest in Afghanistan shifted from the financial to the strategic about two years ago according to experts here. In fact the Wall Street Journal taking first note of the shift wrote: During Afghanistan’s tumultuous political transition last year, Chinese security officials began visiting Kabul regularly, and expressed concerns about militant havens, according to a former senior Afghan security official. 

Franz-Michael Mellbin, the European Union envoy to Afghanistan, said he first noticed increased Chinese interest in Afghanistan in 2013. “They have been looking for an area to expand their foreign policy toolbox,” he said, “but also doing it in a way that would not be seen strategically threatening to the U.S.” 

During an October conference on Afghanistan in Beijing, a Chinese general surprised some U.S. participants by suggesting the Pentagon inquire about a joint effort with China to train Afghan security forces, say people familiar with the matter.” 

This was followed by a secret meeting of the Taliban in China in May this year, with the news being leaked at the time to the Wall Street Journal in the US. Top officials from Afghanistan and Pakistan were present at the meeting, that really became the turn point for full blown Chinese participation in the Afghan peace process. The US has been in close contact with Beijing with Secretary of State John Kerry speaking highly of the new found cooperation with China at the New York meeting just a day ago. He went on to describe China “as a country that understands very deeply the cross currents in Afghanistan. 

Relations between China and Pakistan are close and strategic, leading to discomfort in New Delhi and also Washington, that the latter has clearly overcome. The Wall Street Journal quoted Hu Shisheng, an Afghanistan expert at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, a think tank linked to the Ministry of State Security saysing that the training of Afghan forces outside Afghanistan by both US and China was seen as “feasible and realistic.” The two countries are jointly training diplomats as well. 

Pakistan is supportive, with a foreign ministry statement from Isalamabad maintaining earlier that the Sharif government will work closely with China to support the Afghan peace process. US media reports also suggest a lowering of tensions with senior officials being quoted as saying that they do not see China as a competitor to its relations with Afghanistan and Pakistan. The major meeting in New York was a clear example of this major shift in policy, with close coordination being the key word even as India is eased out. Or as a source said, eases itself out of the Afghan peace process altogether.

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U.S. and China Agree Not to Conduct Cyber Economic Spying on One Another

Ellen Nakashima and Steven Mufson

September 26, 2015

U.S., China vow not to engage in economic cyberespionage

President Obama and Chinese leader Xi Jinping pledged Friday that neither of their governments would conduct or condone economic espionage in cyberspace in a deal that sought to address a major source of friction in the bilateral relationship.

But U.S. officials and experts said that it was uncertain whether the accord would lead to concrete action against cybercriminals.

The agreement, reached in talks Thursday night and Friday morning between Obama and Xi, has the potential — if enforced — to confront one of the most significant threats to U.S. economic and national security and an irritant for American corporations trying to protect their intellectual property. The pact also calls for a ministerial or Cabinet-level process aimed at ensuring compliance.

Speaking alongside the Chinese president in the Rose Garden, Obama said that the two had reached “a common understanding on the way forward,” but he added that more needed to be done.

“The question now is,” Obama said in the joint news conference with Xi, “are words followed by actions?”

The two leaders agreed on a raft of other matters, including “nearly complete bans” on the ivory trade; measures to avoid “miscalculation” and unintended collisions of military planes or ships; and an adoption by China of a cap-and-trade system to limit greenhouse emissions and a $3.1 billion pledge by China to help poor nations grapple with climate change.

Wildlife groups said that the ivory measure would pressure Hong Kong, which is the hub for 90 percent of the world’s ivory trade, much of it destined for the Chinese mainland. Poachers are killing an estimated 33,000 elephants annually.

But cybertheft went to the top of the summit agenda. China has long denied such activity — and Xi at the news conference said, “China strongly opposes and combats the theft of commercial secrets and other kinds of hacking attacks.”

American officials have said that the United States does not conduct cybertheft for the benefit of American companies. The disclosures of a former National Security Agency contractor, Edward Snowden, about extensive U.S. cyberspying overseas have given Beijing ammunition to counter such assertions.

Nonetheless, apparently rattled by the threat of sanctions — a threat that Obama reiterated in his meetings with Xi — China agreed to affirm that it was against economic cyberespionage.

“I raised, once again, our rising concerns about growing cyberthreats to American companies and American citizens,” Obama said at the joint news conference. “I indicated that it has to stop.” Obama added that the two sides made “progress, but I have to insist that our work is not yet done.”

The formulation reached, and reiterated by the two leaders, said that “neither the U.S. or the Chinese government will conduct or knowingly support cyber-enabled theft of intellectual property, including trade secrets or other confidential business information for commercial advantage.”

The two sides also said they would set up a high-level joint dialogue on cybercrime in which officials from both countries would be able to investigate and review allegations of cyber-

intrusions. They agreed to establish a hotline to discuss issues that might arise in that process.

The U.S. secretary of homeland security and the attorney general will co-chair the dialogue on the American side. The Chinese side will be represented by ministers of public security, state security, justice, and the State Internet and Information Office.

“The significance of this agreement is in China, for the first time, publicly committing that it will not conduct” economic cyberespionage, said Kenneth Lieberthal, a senior fellow in foreign policy studies at the Brookings Institution. “In the past, they have simply denied that they have engaged in these or other cyberactivities and that they’re the victim and not the perpetrator.”

Lieberthal added: “Only a great optimist will say that now we’re home-free on this. But [the agreement] at least provides a very high-level, agreed-upon way to engage on this issue and a public [acknowledgment] that this is an issue of genuine consequence.”

Sanctions are not off the table, Obama administration officials said. Obama said he described to Xi the “tools” the administration has to deter and punish cybercrime and cyberattacks. They include criminal indictments, such as those issued against five Chinese military officials last year for economic cyberespionage. Obama said that while they did not discuss specific cases of alleged Chinese cybertheft, he mentioned the executive order he signed in April that authorized the imposition of economic sanctions for malicious cyber-acts.

“I did indicate to President Xi that I would apply those and whatever tools we have in our tool kit to go after cybercriminals, either retrospectively or prospectively,” Obama said.

The agreement does not address traditional espionage, such as China’s alleged theft of personal information of more than 22 million current and former federal employees through the hacking of a computer system used by the Office of Personnel Management.

While the agreement “marks a significant step forward” in the bilateral relationship on cyber ­issues, “it does not and will not solve all of our cyber challenges that we face with China,” said a senior administration official, who spoke under ground rules requiring anonymity. “A lot of the proof will be in whether or not the Chinese can live up to their commitment.”

The agreement has been in the works for several weeks, the official said. Discussions began after the OPM hack, which incensed U.S. negotiators whose own personnel files were compromised. When national security adviser Susan E. Rice traveled to Beijing in late August to lay the groundwork for the summit, she stressed the importance of the cybersecurity issue. But “the meat of it was done” during a visit two weeks ago by special envoy Meng Jianzhu, a member of the political bureau of the Communist Party Central Committee.

“The Chinese wanted a happy outcome to the summit,” said James A. Lewis, a cyber-policy expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

The senior administration official said the indictments last year, the threat of sanctions “and the messages that the administration has been delivering both publicly and privately have begun to persuade the Chinese that this is not just something we are doing for domestic political consumption, but it is in fact a significant issue and a significant irritant in the bilateral relationship.”

Rep. Adam B. Schiff (Calif.), the ranking Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee, said, “I remain skeptical that China will deliver on this promise, and believe it will be necessary to impose a series of increasing consequences on Chinese businesses that continue to profit from the theft of American research and development.”

Aside from cybersecurity, another gap was over China’s ongoing construction of runways on disputed islands and reefs in the South China Sea. Obama said that “the United States will continue to sail, fly or operate anywhere international law allows,” adding that China’s activity “makes it hard for countries in the region to resolve these disputes peacefully.”

Xi did not promise to halt construction on the reefs or islands but said that “China does not intend to pursue militarization.”

On human rights, Obama said he urged Xi to respect such rights, treat ethnic minorities equally and enter dialogue with the Dalai Lama or other Tibetan leaders. Xi said that people “must recognize that countries have different historical processes and realities.”

Earlier, Obama welcomed Xi in a White House ceremony, complete with a 21-gun salute and military fife and drum corps.

Obama and first lady Michelle Obama emerged from the South Portico just after 9 a.m., welcoming Xi and his wife, Peng Liyuan, after their limousine pulled up to the top of the semicircular driveway. The visitors greeted dignitaries including Vice President Biden and Secretary of State John F. Kerry. Xi and Obama then shook hands with dozens of children from Yu Ying Public Charter School, a ­Chinese-language immersion school in Washington.

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