U.S. Faces Gap Between Objectives and Reality in Syria and Iraq

September 24, 2015

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A substantial gap exists between American national objectives and a realistic appreciation of the ongoing conflicts in Syria and Iraq, according to a new analysis from the RAND Corporation.

The analysis examines how the dynamics of the continuing conflicts in Syria and Iraq, which have seen the rise of the Islamic State and other jihadist groups, will shape the future of these countries and the broader region over the coming years, and drive fears beyond their borders.

The conflicts in the two nations appear to be at a stalemate. The insurgents in Syria and Iraq will not be able to overthrow the governments in those two countries, but neither will the Syrian nor Iraqi governments be able to restore their authority throughout the national territories, according to the report.

The analysis details how the continued fighting has seen the diminishing strength of Syria's secular rebels and the ascent of its most-extreme jihadist component represented by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant. "Whether the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant will be able to consolidate its Islamic State and become the primary political expression of Sunnis in Syria and Iraq, or instead become a Sunni badlands where warfare between armed rivals continues indefinitely remains to be seen," said Brian Michael Jenkins, author of the analysis and senior adviser to the RAND president.

"The fighting is likely to continue for the foreseeable future. The contest has become less political and more existential for its participants," writes Jenkins.

Despite the presumption by U.S. leaders that the sectarian and ethnic divisions can be bridged, and that peace and national unity can be restored, enabling the refugees to return, Jenkins suggests, "For the foreseeable future, de facto partition appears likely."

Foreign fighters continue to head for Syria to join jihadist fronts, mainly ISIL, which advertises the opportunity to build a so-called "authentic" Islamic state and opportunities for unlimited violence, Jenkins says. The threat they pose along with ISIL's continued exhortations to its supporters abroad to carry out terrorist attacks has increased pressure on the United States to deploy American ground combat forces, in addition to the broader bombing campaign by a coalition of Western and Middle Eastern nations.

In addition to the threat of foreign fighters to neighboring states and countries of origin, the conflict in Syria has produced millions of refugees on a scale approaching that of Europe during World War II. They will not be able to return so long as the fighting continues, which appears likely.

Jenkins asserts that U.S. national objectives need to be based upon realistic assessments of the situation, even if those frank appraisals defy Americans' inherent sense of progress.

"There are no easy choices for U.S. policy — no right or wrong answers. Each potential course of action carries with it a unique set of costs and risks," writes Jenkins in the analysis. "Nonetheless, national objectives must be based upon realistic assessments of the situation. Here the distance between aspiration and reality seems great."

The perspective, "How the Current Conflicts are Shaping the Future of Syria and Iraq," can be found on www.rand.org.

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Exploiting ISIS' Contradictions

23 Sep 2015

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A new report from the International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation identifies four key factors that drive jihadis to defect from ISIS. Exploiting them will help to build counter-narratives.

ISIS' claim to a caliphate has seen thousands lured from around the world to join the ranks of the group in Iraq and Syria. Its propaganda projects an image of a utopian society embodying justice, equality, fairness, and all that is Islamic. But a new report shows how the stories of defectors can help to undermine the group's appeal.

The International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation and Political Violence (ICSR) has studied common reasons for militants to defect from the group. Victims, Perpetrators, Assets: The Narratives of Islamic State Defectors, released on 21 September 2015, draws on the public statements of 58 ISIS defectors from different countries about their experiences. The study suggests that the rate of defections from ISIS is rising, highlighting that as its infamy grows, so does disillusionment among its members who have not found what they expected.

Understanding the ways in which ISIS, and other jihadi groups, use their propaganda to attract recruits is essential in building counter-narratives, but so is understanding why members of the group wish to leave. The accounts of defectors can be used to reveal the weaknesses, failures and hypocrisies of ISIS, and inform counter-extremism programmes that prevent further recruitment.

From the stories of the defectors in the report, four key narratives were identified as playing a significant role in driving defections: the group's targets; its brutality; its corrupt and un-Islamic behaviour; and the disappointing reality of life under ISIS.

Fighting Sunni Muslims

Since the start of the Syrian civil war, a common propaganda tool for many Sunni jihadi groups has been the perception that they are defending oppressed Sunni Muslims in Syria from the tyrannical Assad regime. ISIS is no exception: it builds on the concept of the universality of the (Sunni) ummah (Muslim nation) to persuade young Muslims from around the world to join its fight.

ISIS fails to live up to its own stated values.

Yet defectors in the report contrasted this with ISIS' obsession with pursuing other Sunni jihadi groups such as Jabhat al-Nusra or Ahrar al-Sham, rather than fighting the Assad regime. Several defectors described the fight against other Sunni groups as being fitna, a Quranic term used extensively in Islamic history to refer to sinful internal division and conflict. In the eyes of the defectors, ISIS placed greater importance on wiping out competitors than serving oppressed fellow Sunni Muslims, or toppling the Assad regime.

Brutality Towards Fellow Sunni Muslims

Much of the criticism levelled by the defectors appears to be targeted as ISIS' failure to live up to its own stated values. Sectarianism among the defectors appears to be largely assumed: there are few complaints about the group's brutality towards religious minorities or 'apostates.' Nevertheless, the level of violence perpetrated against fellow Sunni Muslims was a significant factor in decisions to defect. The testimonies speak of ISIS' scant regard for 'collateral damage' that resulted in the killing of innocent civilians, including women and children. Defectors also attacked the killing of hostages, the systematic mistreatment of villagers, and the grotesque executions of fighters by their own commanders.

For fighters attracted by the projected Sunni Islamic utopia in ISIS propaganda, the realisation of the group's indifference to the deaths of Sunni Muslims as well as its active pursuit of rival groups stands in stark contrast.

Corruption and Un-Islamic Behaviour

ISIS' claim to religious legitimacy rests upon its supposedly authentic – and unique – Islamic credentials. In assigning itself the role of a renewed Islamic caliphate, ISIS claims to be the sole holder of Islamic authority and legitimacy. Yet a repeated narrative in the statements of the defectors was the corrupt and obviously un-Islamic behaviour that they witnessed.

A prominent theme was racist discrimination that defectors faced at the hands of commanders and emirs who would give preferential treatment to Western jihadis over Syrians, felt to be not only un-Islamic, but flagrantly out of line with the unity and equality that ISIS emphasises in its propaganda.

Disappointment with the Harsh Reality

Though less prominent than the other factors, the harsh reality and disappointment of life as part of ISIS was also behind some defections. The material difficulties were typically only challenging for those that had initially been attracted to the group with the intention of material comfort. Western defectors in particular spoke about the difficulty of coping without access to amenities they had grown accustomed to in their home countries, including electricity and basic household supplies.

ISIS is more concerned with rival groups than helping oppressed Syrians.

There was also disappointment with the experience that the ISIS jihad offered. Far from the Hollywood-inspired battle sequences that make up much of the group's propaganda, defectors found that the reality of battle did not match their visions of heroism and action. Defectors labelled the experience as "dull" and claimed that ISIS systematically "exploited" the fervour of foreign fighters by using them as cannon fodder.

The testimonies of the defectors give an insight into the realities of life with ISIS. Studies of the group's propaganda and ideology can reveal the weaknesses of its worldview, allowing counter-narratives to gain traction. But these testimonies also reveal that its actions fail even to match up to its ideology. For many fighters, the initial attraction fades away as soon as the brutality, corruption, and inequality become evident. These contradictions can be exploited to undermine the group's recruitment.

The report may be read in full here.

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Opinion Peace in Syria Requires Global Effort

Ed Husain 

22 Sep 2015

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ssian fears of domestic jihad linked to ISIS and the presence of Orthodox Christians in Syria who look to Russia for protection means Russia cannot be excluded from peace negotiations, argues Ed Husain.

There can be no peace in Syria without Russia. Alongside Iran, Russia has been the most loyal and steadfast supporter of the Assad regime. No American or other initiative will succeed if the Russian bear is ignored or snubbed. All other options have failed.

For Russia, the Syrian conflict is not a faraway fight. Putin is no shy liberal – he can see the connection between his troubled regions in the Caucuses, the fighting power of the martial Chechens, and the strength of ISIS being a training ground for jihadis who wish to attack Russia, or support separatists. Homegrown terrorism linked to the Middle East is not just a Western concern. Russia has the same fears.

Russia fears Middle East-linked homegrown terrorism.

The Russian relationship with the Syrian government goes back to the 1950s and the Cold War. Russia trained the Syrian military top brass, and many Russian government experts on the Arab world learned their trade in Damascus. To this day, thousands of Russians live in Syria – many are women who married Syrian men while they trained in Moscow. Russia's last naval base outside the former Soviet Union is off the Syrian coast. Syria's religious minorities, Orthodox Christians, see Russia as a protector of their safety and interests.

US President Obama showed awareness of this depth of the Russian-Syrian connection when he agreed to military-to-military talks between America and Russia. US Secretary of State John Kerry has been dispatched to facilitate the diplomatic support for this military engagement.

With warmer ties between Iran and the United States, it is an opportune moment to spend some of the new political capital that the Obama administration has accumulated in previously hostile quarters. But Russia, Iran, and the Assad regime alone cannot bring stability to Syria. Their guns falling silent will not stop the bloodletting.

America's traditional allies — Turkey, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the Gulf monarchs that have supported the rebels — cannot be ignored. Turkey is home now to nearly two million Syrians, and over 600,000 Syrians have registered in Jordan. The Saudis will not stop support for Assad's opposition until their proxies have some power and influence in Syria to counter the rise of Iran and Shia domination in neighbouring Iraq.

In the pursuit of peace and stability in Syria; the destruction of ISIS; the ending of the refugee flows and rebuilding a once proud country, the West must cooperate with Russia fully. Our differences over Ukraine, sanctions, Russia's expansionism, and Russian anti-Americanism cannot blur our vision and allow for the growth of extremism and terrorism: It will happen not just in Syria, Turkey, Iraq, and Lebanon, but also in our own cities in the West and in Russia.

It is time to work with Russia respectfully and sincerely to stop war in the killing fields of Syria.

This article also appears at the New York Times

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