If Pakistan splinters...

By Bharat Verma

01 Oct , 2015

http://www.indiandefencereview.com/if-pakistan-splinters/

If Pakistan splinters, it will hit the biggest stakeholder and benefactor China. In order to safeguard its strategic interests, Beijing therefore will make every endeavor to prevent the breakup of Pakistan, even to the extent of military intervention in support of the Pakistan Army.

…the migrant Muslims in West Asia (Middle East) while introducing themselves take pains to assert that they are Muslims from India and not Pakistan.

The Chinese will suffer major setback, if dysfunctional Pakistan splinters in the near future.

Many Malaysian Muslims will hasten to tell you that their country should not be compared to Pakistan. Or the migrant Muslims in West Asia (Middle East) while introducing themselves take pains to assert that they are Muslims from India and not Pakistan.

The Union of India’s consolidation and integration as a nation will get a new fillip, as the distraction created by Pakistan in the name of religion is eliminated.

Serious contradictions within Pakistan have pushed it in the pit of despair from where; it is almost impossible to recover. It is reported that many young Pakistanis out of sheer frustration are repudiating Islam and converting to other religions.

Possibly, majority of the Pakistan’s dominant community, Punjabi Sunni Muslims living in their isolated world of self-destruction do not realize the damage they are doing to Islam.

The likely breakup of Pakistan in the near future will stall expanding Chinese footprints.

Pakistan is appears to be hurtling towards self-destruction.

Beijing treats Pakistan as an extension of its war machine and a surrogate colony. The likely breakup of Pakistan in the near future will stall expanding Chinese footprints.

Impaired Pakistan is a cause of deep worry for Beijing, since Islamabad’s capability to tie-down India by launching terrorist attacks will also suffer.

If Pakistan splinters, there will be enormous gains for India.

PoK will revert back to the Indian fold and peace will prevail. This is the singular reason for Chinese to move their troops into PoK. The strategy is two-fold. First, occupy or gain influence over as much occupied Indian Territory as possible, incase Pakistan breaks up.

Second, to keep up the pressure on Indian borders since Pakistan is no position to do the same, given its present internal disarray. Further, China does not want India to be emboldened to mount an attack on Pakistan, which is already gasping for oxygen.

Anti-India rabble rousing by ISI inspired elements in Bangladesh against India will no longer be possible.

With the break-up of Pakistan, ISI activities like export of fake Indian currency and infiltration of terrorists through Nepal will cease. Anti-India rabble rousing by ISI inspired elements in Bangladesh against India will no longer be possible.

American attempts to unhook Pakistan from China will continue to fail despite the dangling of carrot of modern weapons and technology as Islamabad’s strategic dependency on Beijing is now irreversible.

The Union of India’s consolidation and integration as a nation will get a new fillip, as the distraction created by Pakistan in the name of religion is eliminated.

India then will be able to concentrate on the principal threat posed by China.

Fragmented Pakistan will lesson the heavy financial burden placed on India’s economy with drastic reduction in the security apparatus. This will enable young India to make rapid economic strides that can outpace ageing China in a short span of time.

Similarly, colossal gains accrue to the West, if Pakistan splinters.

The West led by America is losing the plot in Afghanistan because the problem is the Pakistan Army and its Irregular Forces led by General Kayani.

The West led by America is losing the plot in Afghanistan because the problem is the Pakistan Army and its Irregular Forces led by General Kayani. Washington was forced to admit recently this worst kept secret, when its supply routes to Afghanistan were snapped by GHQ Rawalpindi and NATO convoys carrying fuel to Afghanistan were conveniently torched by the ISI controlled Ghost Army of Jihad with impunity.

American attempts to unhook Pakistan from China will continue to fail despite the dangling of carrot of modern weapons and technology as Islamabad’s strategic dependency on Beijing is now irreversible.

The ‘real estate’ of Pakistan was created so that the West could monitor and manipulate the former Soviet Union, China and India.

However, if Pakistan falls apart, Sind which has very strong democratic yearning is certain to charter its own independent path but in consonance with Indian value system.

Independent Baluchistan with its rich resources will be definitely against the Chinese, who in conjunction with Islamabad are exploiting its resources.

Independent Baluchistan with its rich resources will be definitely against the Chinese, who in conjunction with Islamabad are exploiting its resources. Denial of Gawdar port will preclude Chinese navy from the warm waters of Indian Ocean and direct access to West Asia.

Afghanistan will gradually witness unhindered growth of democracy; the spoilers Pakistan Army with ISI would have disappeared.

Therefore, democracies will find many friendly places to operate from and access the resources of Central Asia to the mutual benefit of all players.

The biggest gain for the democracies will be that China’s expanding authoritarian influence will be sharply curtailed. Also the Jihad fervor being orchestrated in this part of the world by the Punjabi Sunnis will die a natural death due to fatigue and lack of resources.

The spread of two authoritarian streams, Chinese communism and the Islamic fundamentalism, in combination or otherwise, threaten the survival of democracies in Asia.

With independent Sind and Baluchistan, the Chinese supply lines from Gawdar would not be possible.

If Pakistan splinters, one of the threats will be substantially neutralized.

This in turn will make Central Asia a safer place where Pakistan aims to attain strategic depth with the help of Islamic fundamentalists.

If Pakistan splinters, Sinkiang in China will face renewed instability and the Chinese flank in occupied Tibet will come under severe pressure.

If Pakistan splinters, Sinkiang in China will face renewed instability and the Chinese flank in occupied Tibet will come under severe pressure.

With independent Sind and Baluchistan, the Chinese supply lines from Gawdar would not be possible. This will force China to revert to ‘peaceful rise’ instead of laying claim on territory or islands of other nations.

The power of the Shias will increase, thus creating a balance with some of the Sunni sects that are mainly responsible for terrorist acts worldwide. Two successive British Prime Ministers have stated Pakistan accounts for 75 percent of all such acts.

If Pakistan splinters, this percentage will drop to abysmal levels.

Most often remarks on Pakistan are prefaced by, “ Just like you Indians cannot live with Pakistan…”

The truth therefore is that “Pakistan cannot live with India.” The converse is absolutely preposterous.

This premise is false. An average Indian can live with Pakistan, as long as Islamabad does not interfere in internal affairs or connive against India. It is irrelevant whether India dialogues, trades or maintains diplomatic relationship with Pakistan; growth of the Indian economy or the growing status of India is not even remotely connected with failure or success of Islamabad. The ‘Pakistan Story’ failed because of the inherent flaws in the values professed and not because of “Kashmir”! The “Indian Story “ shows success because of its belief in secular democratic values.

The truth therefore is that “Pakistan cannot live with India.” The converse is absolutely preposterous.

If Pakistan splinters, it will hit the biggest stakeholder and benefactor China. In order to safeguard its strategic interests, Beijing therefore will make every endeavor to prevent the breakup of Pakistan, even to the extent of military intervention in support of the Pakistan Army.

If Pakistan splinters, forces led by Barak Obama will win. On the contrary, if China is successful in its intervention, authoritarian regimes will hold sway in Asia.

Who wins the great game in Asia, will depend on the finesse with which the cards are dealt by the contending sides.

This article was first published in IDR Jan-Mar 2011 (Vol 26.1)

© Copyright 2015 Indian Defence Review

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Taliban Tighten Grip on Afghan City

By GORDON LUBOLD, MARGHERITA STANCATI and HABIB KHAN TOTAKHIL
Sept. 30, 2015 

Source Link

The Afghan government knew about the threat the Taliban posed to the northern city of Kunduz but its forces were stretched too thin to act before the militants took it over this week, a top official said.

A pre-emptive attack “was planned for quite some time, but it didn’t happen in time,”Abdullah Abdullah, Afghanistan’s chief executive officer, told The Wall Street Journal.

The Taliban, who seized control of Kunduz on Monday, tightened their grip Wednesday, leaving only the local airport firmly in government hands, even as the U.S. military deployed troops and carried out airstrikes in support of its allies.

Mr. Abdullah said an Afghan force of roughly 1,000 soldiers and police was being mobilized to retake the city from a Taliban force that numbers approximately 3,000 across Kunduz province, including militant groups from Central Asia.

“The Kunduz operation has started,” he said, adding that the government hoped to take back the city over the next two days. “We can’t afford to contain them there,” he said of the Taliban.

Aides acknowledged, however, that reinforcements were having trouble reaching Kunduz, and a decision about how to proceed was pending. The Taliban set up checkpoints around the provincial capital and controlled all major roads leading to it, Afghan officials and the Taliban said.

ENLARGE

The United Nations estimates that more than 100 people have been killed since the violence started this week.

Afghan forces took over responsibility for security this year as the U.S. military began withdrawing. The Taliban assault came as U.S. military officials are reviewing options for U.S. troop levels, which under current planning will fall from about 10,000 now to just a few hundred by the end of 2016.

White House press secretary Josh Earnest said the U.S. is monitoring efforts to retake Kunduz and that President Barack Obama would weigh conditions on the ground in determining whether to change the timetable for withdrawal.

In the interview, Mr. Abdullah said the seizure of Kunduz didn’t come as a surprise. Residents had been complaining for some time about the threat posed by the Taliban, he said, and Kabul was long aware of the Taliban’s focus on the city.

But Afghanistan’s military and police force weren’t able to address the security threat there ahead of time because those forces have been stretched thin operating elsewhere in the country, he said, including in Helmand and Nangarhar provinces, in southern and eastern Afghanistan, respectively.

Mr. Abdullah, whose government has publicly pressed the U.S. to reconsider its drawdown of forces, said the assault underscores the need for American forces to stay in Afghanistan.

“We absolutely think that the withdrawal in 2016 as it is planned at the moment, that this is a big risk for us,” Mr.. Abdullah said.

U.S. troops have stepped up their involvement in defending Afghan and international coalition troops and reclaiming Kunduz from the Taliban, who were chased from power by the U.S.-led invasion in 2001.

The U.S. has carried out five airstrikes to protect American personnel at the airport this week. U.S. military officials in Washington said U.S. special operations personnel were at the airport outside Kunduz, but haven’t engaged in direct ground combat with the Taliban.

U.S. Army Col. Brian Tribus, a spokesman for U.S. and other coalition troops in Afghanistan, said the coalition special-operations forces were in Kunduz to assist Afghan troops. “Our service members have the right to protect themselves if necessary,” he added.

Afghan officials said several thousand Afghan forces and some 100 U.S. special operations personnel were in the heavily fortified airport, while other government troops battled militants in surrounding villages.

The Taliban said they were determined to hold on to Kunduz to take control of other areas in northern Afghanistan.

“We will make Kunduz our stronghold and gather our forces here to achieve more triumphs,” spokesman Zabiullah Mujahid said. “We won’t lose Kunduz, and we will enforce the Shariah law here.”

ENLARGE

Reinforcements of Afghan security forces from Kabul arrived to join operations against the Taliban in the city of Kunduz on Wednesday. PHOTO: JAWED KARGAR/EUROPEAN PRESSPHOTO AGENCY

Many Afghan troops being sent as reinforcements to Kunduz were stuck in the neighboring province of Baghlan, where they came under Taliban attack, Afghan officials said.

The area was also heavily mined, and residents were beginning to flee.

“People are so scared,” said Mohammad Ajmal,who lives in Baghlan’s capital, Pul-e Khumri. “Most of the shops are closed. Restaurants and hotels are empty.”

The Taliban also captured two districts outside Kunduz city, Imam Sahib and Chardara, according to an Afghan official and residents.

On Wednesday, they seized a hill overlooking Kunduz. Sixty government fighters surrendered, two dozen of whom managed to escape. Afghan special forces later recaptured the hill, but the fate of the remaining 36 troops wasn’t known.

Life in Kunduz was at a standstill, as the cost of basic goods skyrocketed and people

Nicholas Haysom, the head of the United Nations mission in Afghanistan, said there were reports of “extrajudicial executions, including of health-care workers, abductions, denial of medical care and restrictions on movement out of the city,” all of which he called disturbing.

Most foreigners and Afghan officials had fled the city.

On Wednesday, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani fired the governor of Kunduz province, who was abroad at the time of the Taliban takeover, and appointed Hamdullah Danishi as his successor. It isn’t clear when Mr. Danishi would arrive in Kunduz.

—Ehsanullah Amiri in Kabul and Carol E. Lee in Washington contributed to this article.

Write to Gordon Lubold at Gordon.Lubold@wsj.com and Margherita Stancati atmargherita.stancati@wsj.com

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Pakistan and the Taliban: Past as Prologue?

By C. Christine Fair

September 30, 2015

http://thediplomat.com/2015/09/pakistan-and-the-taliban-past-as-prologue/

To understand the significance of the Taliban to Pakistan, it is important to understand the historically fraught ties not only between India and Pakistan, but also between Pakistan and Afghanistan. While it is commonly believed that Pakistan’s relationship with groups such as the Taliban emerged during the anti-Soviet jihad, this is a considerable understatement of the relationship. In fact, Pakistan’s dalliance with Islamist politics and Islamist militant groups in Afghanistan dates back to the earliest days of Pakistan’s independence. This attests to the enduring security challenges that Pakistan perceives in Afghanistan. Whether these fears are founded or not, Pakistan acts upon them as if they are fact.

Pakistan – unlike the United States – is asymmetrically motivated to stay the course in Afghanistan. Having successfully manipulated jihadi groups for decades, Pakistan has grown insouciant about its ability to continue riding this tiger. However, recent developments such as the announced death of Mullah Omar and the splits within the Taliban, as well as the emergence of ISIS in Afghanistan and Pakistan, raise the stakes for Islamabad. It is unlikely that Pakistan will be able to regain the kind of control that it exercised over the Taliban in the past. The most likely outcome is ever-deepening violence in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Unfortunately, as the world saw on 9/11, the sequelae of these developments are not likely to be confined to Afghanistan or Pakistan.

A Quest for Strategic Depth

Pakistan has been motivated to manipulate affairs in Afghanistan since the earliest years of Pakistan’s independence in 1947, when the British decolonized South Asia by cleaving the subcontinent into two independent states, India and Pakistan, in a bloody partition that killed as many as a million and instigated the largest migration of humans known to modern history. The sanguinary legacy of partition and the communal cleansing it galvanized, as well as the territorial dispute over Kashmir which Pakistan commenced in 1947, has left India and Pakistan as bitter rivals ever since with Pakistan seeking to change maps through violence. While Pakistan’s antagonisms with regard to India are well known, Pakistan also has pursued an interventionist agenda in Afghanistan from the earliest years of independence. The reasons for this are numerous.

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Will Pakistan's army chief get an extension?

Rohan Joshi 

September 25, 2015 

Source Link

Will Gen. Raheel Sharif retire after just one term of three years or will he get an extension?

The campaign to seek an extension to the tenure of Pakistan’s army chief, Gen. Raheel Sharif, is well under way. Imran Khan’s party, the Tehreek-e-Insaf Pakistan(PTI) said that it would support an extension being granted to Raheel Sharif. Influential writers have churned out article after article aggrandizing the army chief in an effort to build public sentiment in favor of an extension. Even Pakistan’s former dictator Pervez Musharraf took to the media and advocated an extension (Gen. Sharif is known to be close to Musharraf and had previously served as Military Secretary to Musharraf). 

The position of Chief of Army Staff (COAS) is appointed by the President of Pakistan based on the recommendation of the Prime Minister for a period of three years. However, we are hard-pressed to find in recent history a Pakistani COAS who transitioned power to his successor upon the completion of his three-year tenure. Indeed the last Pakistani COAS to retire after the completion of his three years in office was Gen Abdul Waheed Kakar in 1996. Kakar himself was offered a three-year extension by Benazir Bhutto, but declined the offer. 

Kakar’s successor, Gen. Jehangir Karamat, was forced to resign by Sharif after differences between the two came to a head over the role of the armed forces in Pakistan. In 1998, Sharif hand-picked Gen. Pervez Musharraf to replace Karamat (and in the process, broke the Pakistan Army’s chain of seniority). 

Then Kargil happened and Sharif injudiciously tried to oust Musharraf while the latter was still airborne on his way back from Colombo. A coup d'état ensued and Musharraf appointed himself “Chief Executive” of Pakistan, while Sharif was lucky to escape with a one-way ticket to Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. 

After serving as Pakistan’s COAS for nine years, Musharraf relinquished power to the former Director-General of the ISI, Ashfaq Kayani in 2007. Kayani, whose leadership some saw as pivotal to the “War on Terror” and Pakistan’s offensive against insurgents in the country’s northwest, was granted an extension in 2010 and eventually retired in 2013, making way for the current army chief, Raheel Sharif. 

Civil-military relations are precarious even in the best of times in Pakistan. Prime Minister Sharif and General Sharif came to assume their respective positions in 2013 with vastly differing perspectives on key issues. Nawaz Sharif’s electoral promises included peace negotiations with the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and better trade relations with India. 

But the civilian government’s negotiations with the TTP went nowhere, to the frustration of the army which bore much of the brunt of the TTP’s attacks. Trade negotiations with India without prioritizing Jammu and Kashmir, Siachen and Sir Creek were unacceptable. To make matters worse, the Sharif government dragged Musharraf through the courts on charges of treason, which caused great disapprobation in the army. 

The rising friction between the Sharif government and the army culminated in the Imran Khan-Tahir ul-Qadri-led dharnas in 2014, which some suggest were orchestrated by then-ISI chief Zaheerul Islam to destabilize the elected government. Though Nawaz Sharif survived the four-month-long assault, he emerged from the crisis a diminished figure, having, in effect, bequeathed key policy decisions on counter-terrorism and India to the army. 

The horrific incident at the Army Public School in Peshawar in December 2014 galvanized public opinion on the need for military action against terrorist groups (though, as is often pointed out, not all terrorist groups). A National Action Plan, drafted in the aftermath of the Peshawar incident, authorized, inter alia, military courts to prosecute and deliver sentences to individuals suspected of engaging in terrorism. The writ of the elected government and independence of the judiciary were effectively eroded. 

Since May 2015, Pakistan’s paramilitary force, the Rangers (which reports to the Ministry of the Interior, but which is placed under the operational control of the army under certain circumstances) targeted the Muttahida Quami Movement (MQM) in Karachi, accusing its officers of terrorism and of acting under India’s influence. What began as an operation to restore law and order in Karachi has morphed into an army-driven “anti-corruption” drive, which in the context of Pakistan, has to be quite an undertaking indeed! 

The anti-corruption drive has targeted the MQM in Karachi and the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) in rural Sindh. In one instance, a confidant of former President and PPP co-chairman Asif Ali Zardari was arrested and presented before the military court on charges of corruption, leading to Zardari’s outburst against the army. The operation against terrorism is gradually being transformed into an operation against Pakistan’s political parties. Zardari and his key party workers have already hied themselves to the safe environs of Dubai. With Imran Khan demanding an expansion of the anti-terrorism drive to Nawaz Sharif’s stronghold of Punjab, how safe can Sharif’s party really be? 

Whether Raheel Sharif seeks to stay on as army chief is perhaps contingent on whether and to what extent public mood favors an extension of his tenure and on how successful the anti-terror operation spearheaded by him is deemed. The glitzy media campaign lionizing Raheel Sharif seeks to accomplish the former. A measure of the latter will be whether there is a significant decrease in the number and scale of terrorist incidents in Pakistan. A continuing spate of terrorist attacks -- such as the recent attack on a Pakistan Air Force base outside Peshawar -- may keep him from relinquishing his position. 

The impetus being given to the anti-corruption drive however seems to suggest that the Pakistan Army’s senior leaders (one of whom will likely be the next COAS) are intent on circumscribing the political space of elected representatives, maximizing their own relative power and interests and throttling whatever is left of Pakistan’s democratic institutions. This spells bad news for Nawaz Sharif (and indeed, for his political adversaries), whether or not Raheel Sharif stays on after November 2016. 

Rohan Joshi is a Fellow at the Takshashila Institution, focusing on Indian foreign policy and strategic affairs. He is a regular contributor to Pragati - The Indian National Interest Review and The Diplomat. 

He writes about India's engagement with the world on his blog, Bharat Kshetra, a part of Business Standard's platform, Punditry.

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Taliban Gaining Ground in Another Province in Northern Afghanistan

JOSEPH GOLDSTEIN and JAWAD SUKHANYAR

September 30, 2015

Shaken by Taliban Victory in Kunduz, Afghans Flee Another Provincial Capital

KABUL, Afghanistan — The test facing the Afghan government now is not just whether it can quickly mount a counterattack and retake Kunduz, the northern city that fell to the Taliban on Monday, but whether it can prevent a nearby provincial capital from falling as well.

Accounts from the neighboring province of Baghlan on Wednesday showed that the collapse of government forces in Kunduz against less numerous Taliban forces was prompting a crisis of confidence in the neighboring province of Baghlan, where wealthier citizens and those with government connections have begun to leave for the relative safety of their hometowns.

In the midst of one of the gravest moments for the American-backed government in Kabul, military leaders spoke for a third day about launching a decisive counterattack against the Taliban in Kunduz. But it was becoming clear that most of the reinforcements for such an attack had been waylaid in Baghlan.

The reinforcements “will not be able to reach Kunduz without a big fight,” said Ted Callahan, a Western security adviser based in northeastern Afghanistan.

The Taliban have proven in the last few days just how tight a grip they hold on a stretch of northern Baghlan that abuts Kunduz Province. Reinforcements coming from either Kabul or the government stronghold in Mazar-i-Sharif must pass through the area to reach Kunduz city, and a number of convoys have been ambushed there.

It was not clear on Wednesday whether the front line in the north was still in Kunduz or was rapidly shifting south into Baghlan. That, at least, was how residents of Baghlan’s provincial capital, Pul-i-Kumri, were feeling.

“It is true, people are evacuating the city today,” Zabihullah Rustami, a former member of the provincial council, said by telephone. He had done so himself, he said, relocating to his rural district to the east. “People who are enemies of the Taliban are leaving,” he said, and the city was rife with “rumors that the Taliban might attack and take over the city.”

Pul-i-Kumri, about 90 miles north of Kabul, could become the next flash point if the Taliban’s momentum in the north is not checked in the next few days.

Taliban fighters have been creeping up to the city’s outskirts over the last six months. Gun and mortar fire are frequently heard, and skirmishes have become regular occurrences on three sides of the city.

“In Pul-i-Kumri, the situation is not in the favor of the government,” Mr. Rustami said. “If any Taliban come out and shout ‘Allahu akbar,’ the city will fall. The Taliban are close to the city.”

In a worrisome sign, two units of the Afghan Local Police surrendered their bases just outside Pul-i-Kumri to the Taliban on Wednesday and joined the insurgents, while a third base there was overrun, according to Mohammad Leqaa, a former general who commanded police forces in several provinces. Other military units in the area were also said to have fled.

Mr. Leqaa estimated that as much as 10 percent of the city’s population left on Wednesday alone. “The residents were influenced by waves of people fleeing Kunduz by way of Baghlan,” he said. “We tried to announce to people not to panic and don’t leave. They weren’t listening.”

Mr. Callahan, the security adviser, said he expected government forces to put up more of a fight in Pul-i-Kumri than they did in Kunduz.

“I think you’ll see much more resistance” from the police and pro-government militias, Mr. Callahan said. “Mind you, Baghlan is big, and most of the security forces are drawn from the eastern parts of the province, so there is a big pool of potential reinforcements.”

Even so, he said, a strong defense could not be taken for granted, because if panic took root in Pul-i-Kumri, a Taliban victory could be “a self-fulfilling prophecy:” a small Taliban force could sow enough fear “to more or less walk in” as security forces retreated.

“It would be the same movie we’ve seen in Kunduz,” Mr. Callahan said.

The Taliban’s resurgence in Baghlan over the past two years is a complicated story of ethnic rivalry and local politics as much as ideology. Baghlan’s sprawling and populous northern district, known as Baghlani Jadid, is largely Pashtun, Afghanistan’s largest ethnic group — from which the Taliban traditionally draws its members.

Pashtuns live in settlements across the north, but they are outnumbered in the region by Afghanistan’s second largest group, the Tajiks. In Baghlan, many Pashtuns have felt left out of the provincial power structure, especially after a leading Pashtun candidate failed to win the provincial council chairmanship in last year’s election. Since then, Pashtun support for the government appears to have waned in northern Baghlan and insecurity has been rising, especially along the stretch of national highway running through the province.

On Tuesday and Wednesday, convoys of reinforcements headed toward Kunduz were fighting pitched battles with the Taliban in two areas, according to Abdul Shaker Urfani, a member of a community council in northern Baghlan.

By his count, more than 1,000 Afghan soldiers and police officers bound for Kunduz were stuck in the province on Wednesday. “They can’t break through the Taliban resistance,” Mr. Urfani said.

The capture of Kunduz, a city of 300,000 people, three days ago appeared to be the Taliban’s largest military victory in a war that has gone on for more than a decade. Kunduz is the first urban center the Taliban have held since 2001.

Soon after it fell, Afghan military officials spoke of using the city’s airport, five miles to the south, as a staging ground for a swift counterattack. Now, though, the airport is imperiled as well, caught between Taliban forces approaching from Kunduz and the insurgent-controlled countryside in every other direction.

By Tuesday night, Taliban fighters had pushed through the airport perimeter, threatening several hundred soldiers and at least as many civilians who had fled to the airport from the city. One police officer was killed and at least 17 were wounded defending the area, officials said.

Their situation improved somewhat when American warplanes struck Taliban positions at 11:30 p.m. and again at 1 a.m., an American military spokesman said. The Afghan Air Force also fired weapons.

Around the same time, American Special Forces soldiers and Afghan commandos left the airport headed for Kunduz, according to Afghan government officials. Whether the Americans were there to take Taliban positions or to call in airstrikes was not known. By morning, the Americans appeared to have returned, according to people there who spoke by telephone.

An American military spokesman refused to discuss the matter.

It appeared that at least one American operation in the city ended in failure. An Afghan security official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said that a group of 100 or more Afghan soldiers, trapped in an ancient fortress north of the city, had held the Taliban off for more than two days. But when American forces tried to airdrop ammunition and weapons to them, the official said, “they missed the base and dropped the weapons in the river.” It was not clear whether the weapons actually landed in the water of the nearby Kalagaw River or had merely missed the defenders’ position by a long distance.

That position fell Wednesday morning, and about 60 soldiers surrendered or were captured by the Taliban, although at least a few dozen managed to escape, the official said.

Questions about how thousands of army, police and militia defenders could continue to fare so poorly against a Taliban force that most local and military officials put only in the hundreds were hanging over President Ashraf Ghani’s government and its American allies.

The government forces and militiamen defending Kunduz Province were said to number more than 7,000 when the city fell. Some fell back to the airport, some fled to their homes, and some are unaccounted for.

Military officials in Kabul continued to promise an imminent counterattack, but an Afghan security official in Kabul who insisted on anonymity to discuss security matters said he was not aware that enough troops were in position to mount one.

“There is no counterattack,” he said, “not now, at least.”

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Afghan Military Counterattack to Recapture Kunduz Experiencing Difficulties

Mujib Mashal

September 29, 2015

Afghan Forces Seek to Regain Kunduz, Major Northern City, From Taliban

KABUL, Afghanistan — A day after the Taliban took their first major city in 14 years, a counterattack was underway Tuesday, but ground forces sent from other provinces to recapture the northern city, Kunduz, were delayed by ambushes and roadside bombs, officials said.

American forces carried out an airstrike outside the city Tuesday morning, said Col. Brian Tribus, a spokesman for the United States forces in Afghanistan. He did not specify the target, but said the strike was carried out to eliminate a threat to coalition and Afghan forces.

Ghulam Rabbani, a member of the Kunduz provincial council, said ground forces from Kabul and the northern province of Balkh had been repeatedly ambushed by the Taliban on their way to Kunduz. Some of the reinforcements were waiting in nearby Baghlan to meet with the forces from Kabul, said Col. Abdul Qahar, an Afghan Army spokesman in the north.

Other Afghan security forces at the outlying Kunduz airport, including about 300 commandos who had arrived by air, began to press toward the city center early Tuesday morning, but their progress was slow, officials said. Most of the city remained under Taliban control, with security forces having taken back only a few government buildings.

Insurgents roamed the city freely with chants blaring from their vehicles’ loudspeakers, according to residents reached by telephone. In a victory statement, the Taliban leader, Mullah Akhtar Muhammad Mansour, promised that his forces would not commit the sort of atrocities for which the Taliban are known.

“The citizens of Kunduz city should be aware that the Islamic Emirate has no intention of transgressing against their personal property, carrying out extrajudicial killings, looting or breaching the inviolability of homes,” he said in the statement.

But the looting of institutions and businesses continued Tuesday, including the United Nations regional branch, the Afghan intelligence agency’s provincial office, two radio stations and a number of car dealerships. Even broken-down cars were being towed out of dealerships, residents said. A vault at the central bank’s Kunduz branch was blown up early Tuesday morning, residents said.

“The Taliban are strolling around freely like this is their home,” said Mr. Rabbani, the council member, who like many Kunduz officials had retreated to the airport but was in touch with residents. “They took a lot of weapons from the intelligence agency’s office, weapons that were stocked for arming pro-government militias. We fear that there was cash and vehicles also.”

One man accused of being a thief, his mouth covered with material that bore illegible writing, was marched by Taliban fighters to the main city square, a resident said. He was forced to repent, and was freed after elders intervened and the man promised not to steal again.

While the Afghan government has vowed to retake Kunduz soon, many analysts and officials predict a difficult fight ahead. The Taliban have penetrated residential areas, which make it costly to carry out airstrikes and operations involving heavy weaponry.

Additionally, because the insurgents have long controlled most of the districts surrounding the city and have been able to threaten highways in the neighboring provinces, it could be difficult for the Afghan government to resupply and reinforce its troops.

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U.S. Airstrikes on Kunduz Continue; Intel Agencies Were Taken by Surprise by Taliban Offensive

September 30, 2015

US airstrikes back Afghan push to retake city from Taliban 

KABUL, Afghanistan (AP) – U.S. airstrikes hit Taliban positions overnight around a key northern city seized by insurgents this week as Afghan troops massed on the ground Wednesday ahead of what is likely to be a protracted battle to retake Kunduz.

The Taliban were also gearing for the long fight and their fighters were seen planting bombs and mining roads in and out of the city on Wednesday to slow down Afghan forces.

Also overnight, there was fierce fighting for control of Kunduz’s airport, a few kilometers (miles) outside the city, before the Taliban retreated under fire, several residents said. The airport remained in Afghan government hands.

U.S. Army spokesman, Col. Brian Tribus, said there were two new airstrikes and that U.S. and NATO coalition advisers, including special forces were at the scene “in the Kunduz area, advising Afghan security forces.”

The Taliban captured Kunduz, a city of 300,000 people, on Monday. It was the first major urban area they seized since the 2001 U.S.-led invasion ousted their extremist regime.

The attack took Afghan authorities by surprise, as the militants managed to sneak into the city during the recent Muslim holiday of Eid al-Adha, a busy season when many Afghans travel in and out of urban areas.

The infiltration was an apparent intelligence failure, and the head of the country’s intelligence agency, Rahmatullah Nabil, apologized to lawmakers in parliament on Wednesday for it.

Since the capture, the Taliban have put Kunduz on lockdown. Militants have been going house to house searching for government workers, instilling fear, according to residents who spoke on condition of anonymity, fearing for their safety.

Roads in and out of the city were blocked and the Taliban - believed to have joined forces with other insurgent groups to boost their numbers - were said to be forcing boys and young men to fight with them.

During Monday’s assault, the insurgents freed 600 prisoners from the Kunduz jail, among them 144 who had been jailed as Taliban gunmen, officials said.

The insurgents also set up checkpoints to ensure that no one leaves. Officials who made it to the airport on the outskirts of the city before roads were sealed were still hunkered down there. The whereabouts of the provincial governor, Omar Safi, who was abroad when the city fell, were unknown.

Information from inside the city remained sketchy. Kunduz residents have described an atmosphere of fear and reported arbitrary acts of violence, such as torching and looting of government buildings, shuttered businesses and the compounds of non-government organizations, including the U.N. The road blocks were preventing delivery of food, medicines and other supplies into the city.

The U.N. special representative in Afghanistan, Nicholas Haysom, said he was concerned about reports “of extrajudicial executions, including of health care workers, abductions, denial of medical care and restrictions on movement out of the city.”

Reports from the region indicated that up to 6,000 civilians have fled the city to escape the fighting, a statement from Haysom’s office said.

The spokesman for Afghanistan’s Public Health Ministry, Wahidullah Mayar, said on his official Twitter account that 30 people have been killed in the fighting, and more than 200 inured. “Around 90 percent of them are civilians,” he tweeted.

The U.N. Assistance Mission in Afghanistan called on all parties in the conflict to “protect civilians from harm and to respect human rights at all times.”

Kunduz, 175 kilometers (108 miles) north of Kabul, has been the scene of Taliban attacks since April, when the insurgents launched their annual warm weather offensive with an attempt to take control of the city.

The surrounding province, also called Kunduz, is one of the country’s most important grain producers, has rich mineral resources and borders Tajikistan. Its strategic routes to neighboring countries in the east, north and west and to the capital Kabul to the south mean huge sums can be earned from smuggling of drugs, minerals and weapons across borders.

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U.S. and NATO SOF Troops Taking Part in Combat Operations Outside Kunduz

Tim Craig

September 30, 2015

U.S. troops dispatched to Kunduz to help Afghan forces

KABUL — Special forces from the U.S.-led coalition in Afghanistan fought Taliban militants early Wednesday after being dispatched to the northern city of Kunduz to help Afghan forces re-take it from insurgents who seized it earlier this week, a coalition spokesman said.

The forces were on a mission near Kunduz airport where hundreds of Afghan forces based themselves after retreating from the city, the spokesman told the Reuters news agency.

The report came shortly after the coalition announced that American troops had been dispatched to the embattled city of Kunduz, which the Taliban seized during a lightning strike Monday, dealing a major blow to Afghanistan’s Western-backed government.

The key city of Kunduz is the first provincial capital to fall to the Taliban since 2001.

“Coalition special forces advisers, while advising and assisting elements of the Afghan Security Forces, encountered an insurgent threat in the vicinity of the Kunduz airport at approximately 1 a.m., 30 September,” Col. Brian Tribus, a spokesman for the coalition, told Reuters.

“U.S. forces conducted an airstrike to eliminate the threat in Kunduz.”

Tribus would not say what nationality the special forces were, but when asked if the statement meant they had engaged in combat, he said “Yes,” Reuters reported.

The rules of engagement for U.S. forces remaining in Afghanistan allow them to fight if they are threatened by insurgents.

Earlier, Col. Tribus said the troops were sent to Kunduz to “train, advise and assist” Afghan forces. That statement marked the first time that coalition officials publicly confirmed they are actively involved in boosting the Afghan troops on the ground there.

He said the troops involved a combination of American special forces as well as troops from other countries that make up the international coalition.

Coalition officials declined to release the number of troops now present in Kunduz, when they arrived or where they are stationed, citing “operational security” concerns.

But Tribus said coalition special forces will be “advising and assisting Afghan special forces units in the area who are working to clear the city of Kunduz.”

Some coalition troops assigned to conventional military units are also in Kunduz to support the Afghan army.

U.S. forces are also continuing airstrikes against Taliban fighters who pose a threat “to the force.”

Two airstrikes were conducted Tuesday near the airport on the outskirts of the city. The airport is a key staging ground for the Afghan military, but Taliban fighters had been advancing toward it. U.S. forces conducted a third airstrike early Wednesday, also near the airport, Tribus said.

“All three strikes were conducted for coalition protection reasons,” Tribus said.

About 13,200 coalition troops remain in Afghanistan to help train and advise the Afghan military. Of those, 6,800 are American. There are also 3,000 American troops in Afghanistan to support or carry out U.S. counter-terrorism missions.

On Wednesday, the coalition announced a soldier had been killed in northern Afghanistan due to a “non battle cause.” Officials stressed the death was not related to the ongoing conflict in Kunduz.

The fight to reclaim Kunduz — Afghanistan’s sixth-largest city and a strategic gateway to Central Asia — is one of the Afghan military’s biggest tests in its campaign against the Taliban, and it raises questions about the withdrawal timetable for U.S. and other coalition troops.

“Obviously, this is a setback for the Afghan security forces,” Pentagon spokesman Peter Cook said Tuesday. “But we’ve seen them respond in recent weeks and months to the challenges they face, and they’re doing the same thing in Kunduz right now.”

Defense officials expressed optimism that Afghan forces, including commandos and special forces, would quickly expel from Kunduz the estimated 500 Taliban fighters in the city.

A U.S. military official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss operations, said in Washington on Tuesday that the Taliban attacked Kunduz partly “for publicity purposes.”

“They did what they had to do, and they’re going to take a beating [getting] out of there,” the official said, predicting that Afghan forces would dislodge the militants from the city within weeks.

The counteroffensive, however, did not appear to be going as well as hoped.

Safiullah Ahmadi, a Kunduz official who is helping to oversee the government response, said in an interview earlier Tuesday that Afghan forces had retaken the main police station in Kunduz.

But Ahmadi said that Taliban fighters still control large sections of the city, including major government buildings, and that “a big operation” was needed to dislodge them.

Mirza Laghmani, a resident, said Tuesday night that “intense fighting” raged near the airport, with government forces facing ambush-style attacks by the Taliban on roads leading into the city center.

Meanwhile, casualties mounted. The aid group Doctors Without Borders said its trauma hospital in Kunduz has been “inundated” with more than 170 injured patients, including many suffering from gunshot wounds.

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Afghan Military Effort to Recapture Kunduz Fails, Taliban Continue to Advance

Joseph Goldstein and Mujib Mashal

September 30, 2015

Afghan Crisis Grows as Push to Retake Kunduz From Taliban Fails

KABUL, Afghanistan — Afghanistan was plunged deeper into crisis a day after the Taliban seized the northern city of Kunduz, as the insurgents on Tuesday kept assaulting the reeling Afghan security forces and the government struggled to mount a credible response.

Not only did a promised government counteroffensive on Kunduz not make headway during heavy fighting on Tuesday, but the day ended with yet another aggressive Taliban advance, with insurgents surrounding the airport to which hundreds of Afghan forces and at least as many civilians had retreated, thinking it would be safe.

After more than a day of relative silence as the situation worsened around Kunduz, the American military showed the first signs of increased involvement in what the Pentagon called “a setback,” conducting at least two airstrikes, and reportedly more as attacks continued at the airport late Tuesday.

Beyond the Taliban’s gains in Kunduz, there was evidence that the insurgents were also pushing a broader offensive in northern Afghanistan, officials said. One particular point of concern was Takhar Province, just east of Kunduz, where the insurgents were said to be heavily assaulting military checkpoints and government facilities in several districts over the past two days.

Questions about how thousands of army, police and militia defenders could continue to fare so poorly against a Taliban force that most local and military officials put in the hundreds hung over President Ashraf Ghani’s government and its American allies.

In the hours after Kunduz’s fall, Afghan officials said an overwhelming Afghan Army force was on its way to retake the city. But by the end of the day on Tuesday, only a few hundred had materialized at the airport — a small fraction of the number who had fled the city the day before. Many more traveling by road were said to have been slowed by ambushes and roadside bombs, in another sign of growing Taliban control in Kunduz Province and nearby areas.

As the situation worsened on Tuesday, the Pentagon press secretary, Peter Cook, said in a news conference of the Kunduz fighting, “Obviously, this is a setback.” In addition to the airstrikes, he said, a number of coalition forces were with Afghan forces as advisers.

In a later statement, Mr. Cook said the Afghan military had “amassed a sizable force to retake city, numbering in the thousands.” He continued, “We are confident they will defeat the Taliban and restore the city to Afghan control.”

In Kunduz, the city’s limited medical facilities were overwhelmed with the flow of wounded, although the number of dead from the two days of fighting remained unclear. The main trauma center, run by Doctors Without Borders, had received 171 wounded, including 46 children, many of them in critical condition with gunshot wounds.

“We have 130 patients spread throughout the wards, in the corridors and even in offices,” said Guilhem Molinie, the representative in Afghanistan for the doctors’ group. “With the hospital reaching its limit and fighting continuing, we are worried about being able to cope with any new influx of wounded.”

President Ashraf Ghani of Afghanistan said that the country’s security forces had made gains in their efforts to regain control of Kunduz after Taliban militants captured the city on Monday.

The Taliban continued to consolidate their hold on the provincial capital, an important northern hub that has been the site of many bitter battles in the past two generations and that was the last major Taliban-held city to fall to the American-backed Northern Alliance offensive in 2001.

By the end of Monday, the insurgents had already set up checkpoints throughout the city, and they had issued edicts against looting. During the day on Tuesday, Taliban fighters roamed the city freely with chants blaring from their vehicles’ loudspeakers, according to residents reached by telephone. One man accused of being a thief, his mouth covered with material that bore illegible writing, was marched by Taliban fighters to the main city square, a resident said. He was forced to repent, and was freed after elders intervened and the man promised not to steal again.

In a victory statement, the Taliban leader, Mullah Akhtar Muhammad Mansour,promised that his forces would not commit the sort of atrocities for which the Taliban are known. “The citizens of Kunduz city should be aware that the Islamic Emirate has no intention of transgressing against their personal property, carrying out extrajudicial killings, looting or breaching the inviolability of homes,” he said in the statement.

But the looting of institutions and businesses continued, including of the United Nations regional branch, the Afghan intelligence agency’s provincial office, two radio stations and a number of car dealerships. Even broken-down cars were being towed out of dealerships, residents said. A vault at the central bank’s Kunduz branch was blown up early Tuesday, residents said.

“The Taliban are strolling around freely like this is their home,” said Ghulam Rabbani Rabbani, a member of the Kunduz provincial council, who like many Kunduz officials had retreated to the airport but was in touch with residents. “They took a lot of weapons from the intelligence agency’s office, weapons that were stocked for arming pro-government militias. We fear that there was cash and vehicles also.”

In a televised news conference, Mr. Ghani sought to assure the Afghan public that his forces would win back Kunduz, which was a city of about 300,000 people before it began emptying out during the recent months of Taliban encirclement.

Despite reports that a rout was continuing around Kunduz, the president insisted that it was more a matter of restraint by his security forces than of failure.

“The problem is that the treacherous enemy is using civilians as human shield,” Mr. Ghani said during his news conference, accompanied by his war cabinet. “The government of Afghanistan is an accountable government and cannot bombard inside the cities, and it will not.”

Some residents still in Kunduz described being terrified at what was to come — either from Taliban rule or from the urban warfare that was likely to intensify.

“There is a state of dread and distress in the city, although the Taliban has come to the mosques and the streets to call on people and tell them that they are safe,” Rahmatullah, a prominent Kunduz teacher who goes by just one name, said in a telephone interview.

By 10 p.m. on Tuesday, residents said American or Afghan aircraft could be heard overhead, although there were conflicting reports about whether they were dropping ordnance on Taliban positions outside the airport. Military officials said the Taliban could be heard on their military radios shouting “B-52s!” — long the Taliban cry to take cover from American air power.

The Kunduz police spokesman, Sayed Sarwar Hussaini, said some American Special Forces soldiers had arrived at the airport Tuesday evening — although whether they were there to call in airstrikes or to otherwise join Afghan commandos in an attack on the city was not clear.

Government officials, including Mr. Hussaini, also claimed that the Taliban’s governor for Kunduz, Mullah Abdul Salam, had been killed in fighting near the airport late Tuesday. There were no details or other confirmation of the reports, however.

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